AGI, the Santa Claus of AI

It's Puffery People, Sam Altman Just Said So

AGI is myth, but useful. Like Santa.

Can you imagine anyone providing a proposal for investment which stated that their production would produce AGI - Artificial General (Human) Intelligence?

No.

I will go out on a limb and say that it has never happened. This isn’t because I have reviewed all the AI proposals out there. I have another reason.

No one would be so foolish.

It is a crime to misstate the truth in connection with seeking investment.

Promising human intelligence by computer that did not fail once is a fools errand, and no one would bet their company on it. And no one has.

“But Ai Counsel, Ai Counsel, all I heard about is AGI this and AGI that, are they all LYING? I just saw the demo of o3 by OpenAI on Friday night in San Francisco — its next generation reasoning model — and everyone is saying ‘AGI has been achieved internally’!”

No.

It’s the classical example definition of trade or commercial “puffery,” which is quite legal and all over the place.

AGI is AI puffery.

What is “puffery”?

Puffery is a legal term which refers to exaggerated or vague claims made about a product or service that are considered opinions rather than factual statements.

The legal definition of puffery can vary slightly depending on the jurisdiction, but generally encompasses the following key elements:

1. Exaggerated or vague statements: Puffery involves claims that are overstated or lack specificity

   [“AGI is coming” “When will AGI come?” “I heard AGI is might be here.”]
   

2. Subjective opinions: These statements are considered subjective rather than objective, factual assertions
   
   [Folks A-G-I cannot be, and has not been, defined].
   

3. Not taken seriously by reasonable consumers: Puffery includes claims that a reasonable person would not interpret literally or rely upon when making a purchasing decision
   
   [How many people are purchasing ChatGPT on the ‘hope’ of AGI yet they never are told they will receive it].
   

4. Not measurable or verifiable: Puffery statements typically cannot be proven true or false through scientific methods
   
   [Ask yourself, how can one EVER measure a model which displays General (Human) Intelligence — it is not verifyable (a) because you’d have to ask it every question to determine if it were 100% accurate, and (b) because you couldn’t - there is no such thing as all the questions].

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) defines puffery as "exaggerations reasonably to be expected of a seller as to the degree of quality of his product, the truth or falsity of which cannot be precisely determined."

This is how companies and products can get away with saying, outrageous sales statements that are not fraud, which is illegal, in statements of puffery:

“Red bull gives you wings”

“Clinically proven”

“America’s best loved coffee”

“Better ingredients. Better pizza.”

And friends, take if from AI Counsel, AGI is coming just like Santa Clause is coming.

OpenAI is to be commended for pulling off an amazing, “12 Days of Shipmas,” in which it announced a new product every day for each of 12 days.

As the finale, last night in San Francisco (Friday 12/20), OAI debuted it’s brand new smash model “o3”. This lead to wide spread discussion online in AI communities (and on X especially), as expected…

All the talk was about “did we” or “didn’t we” “achieve AGI”?

Some pushing openly on X that “people do not realize we have achieved AGI…” etc

This was putting OAI in a bind which had been winding up since early days with Elon there, that people would believe (and now expect, or attibute to) OAI as saying it possessed AGI. It cannot say so because it is not true. And I believe it to be an impossibility — and they know it.

So out comes company CEO Sam Altman out to “pop the balloon,” revealing funny, legally-protective, puffery.

See what he did there?

In response to VP OF PRODUCT AT OPENAI, PETER WELINDER, in what looks like a comedy straight-man to funny-man set up, “When we get naming right, you’ll know we’ve achieved AGI internally…”

Sam writes, “AGI-1.” Is this a joke? It’s no joke. It’s a very protective post.

Saying there is a ‘first version’ of Artificial GENERAL Intelligence means of course that there is NO AGI. For how could there be an AGI-2, 3, 4, etc…? Wouldn’t the first G be G enough? And if it were not, it would not be G, but something short of same.

Like a cherry on a sundae, on the Greatest AI Show on Earth, the X post by OAI CEO reveals what thinking people have known all along — that AGI is a figment, not a real thing.

GUYS, AGI IS THE SANTA CLAUS OF AI.

[Or AI’s (Exit) Clause?]

He knows when you are sleeping,

He knows when you’re awake,

He knows when you’ve been bad or good,

So be good for goodness sake!

Fiction. Just like Santa, I say AGI is a very useful fiction. It keeps everyone happy and behaving and dreaming. Keeps the elves busy.

AGI is a mystical far goal on the horizon, always just out of reach, like, say, going to Mars.

This wide-out aim organizes humans around the events of today in preparation, and the urgency of preparing right now, and putting out the milk and cookies and getting all wrapped and prepared, and tucking folks into bed soundly to await the magic.

Make no mistake. AGI has been a tremendous mobilizer of people, thought, code, and resources which have built AI growth, and as such, has been very valuable and important. Puffery with purpose, just like Ol’ St. Nick. Put him on one million coke bottles! Give me 7 TRILLION for the future of AI!

So, remind the children, name the reindeer, get your orders prompt (or your prompts in order), sing some jingles, and get your photo at the mall if you want…

AGI is the Santa Clause Puffery of the AI industry.

***

But, what IS REAL and possible and the immediate future of AI is ASI -
Artificial Specific Intelligence

Comprehensive/complete data-sets in discrete areas) like,
say for instance,
areas of the
>LAW!

Merry AGImus all!

[Oddly enough, agimus is the Latin for for “we do” or “we act.”]