BIG LAW GLOOM BOOM DOOM II - AI
2025 Associate Hiring ALL TIME LOW (ALL TIME as in "All of Time")
“LOWEST NUMBER OF LAW ASSOCIATES RECRUITING IN HISTORY” - HEADLINE!
I keep ringing the bell, so I’ll keep ringing the bell.
THE BOTTOM IS DROPPING OUT OF BIGLAW AS A BUSINESS
Much/most is driven by the incursion of AI which
a) allows law customers (especially the sophisticated) to get DIY law (FREE),
b) builds intergrated solutions for corporates like Harvey AI doing w tech what was done by BigLaw associates,
c) allows BIG FOUR Accounting to do their legal in-house,
d) speeds the time it takes skilled lawyers to do things,
e) promotes firms huddling around AI tools, thus in some instances combining teams/business and halving billables,
F) much more… [its a big F]
Revenue remains high but demand-side damage now ansd on a going forward basis.
Combine with high-lever high-rate high-rent overloaded commercial real estate and debt on the balance sheet and things are looking very muggy indeed.
Storied BigLaw Model’s White Flag Moment after 100+ years?
Is this the tipping point of the downward decline forever of the “forever” old model of Law?
My confabulation and interpretation of excerpts from a Legal.io article…
Key points:
US law firms have significantly reduced summer associate hiring to record lows.
The shift reflects broader changes in demand and economic conditions affecting the legal industry.
“According to the National Association for Law Placement (NALP), the number of summer associate offers in 2024 has dropped to an all-time low. This decline continues a trend from the previous year, indicating a cautious approach to recruitment amidst uncertain economic conditions.
“The Thomson Reuters Institute report from January highlights that U.S. law firms are increasingly focusing on hiring experienced lateral associates rather than investing in new talent through summer programs. This shift comes as firms adjust to an oversupply of staff from hiring surges in 2021 and 2022, driven by a temporary increase in demand for legal services post-COVID-19.
[N.B. This validates my thesis about the new “alligator teeth” model for BigLaw - going forward - and for the first time in history — big on top small (contracted out - AI) on bottom.]
“NALP's executive director, Nikia Gray, noted that….the reduced hiring of summer associates aligns with a slowdown in client demand. This strategic adjustment is part of a broader recalibration within the industry to align staff levels with current market conditions.
Gloom, boom, doom report.
